H.E. Eric Teo, H.E. Ekaterini Loupas, H.E. Maria Theresa B.Dizon-De Vega, H.E. Colin Crooks, H.E. Paul Duclos, Minjae Kim, Young-kee Crooks, Won-soo Kim, Enna Park, Frantz Hotton, Ian Jeong, Peter Hildebrand, Seungmi Choi, Sanjay Kumar, Hyun bin Kim, Elenore Kang, Choi Jungwha, and Didier Beltoise attended this forum.

Ambassador Eric Teo warmly welcomed and thanked everyone who attended.

Thanks to the gorgeous fruit dessert carefully prepared by the Ambassador's wife and the catering service provided by two Singaporean restaurants in Korea, we had a more enjoyable and special evening while enjoying Singapore's representative dinner buffet.

Won-soo Kim's lecture on 'Korea and Rapidly changing World issues’ started after the dinner. Won-soo Kim was was appointed as a Secretary for International Security Affairs in the Office of the President of the Republic of Korea and served as  the former Under Secretary-General and high representative for disarmament affairs of the United Nations. 

In this lecture, Flitto's 'Live Translation' solution, which translates the presenter's voice into text in real time using sophisticated voice recognition and excellent AI translation technology, was provided.

Participants all asked many questions after the informative lecture.

We would like to thank Won-soo Kim for his lecture, and H.E. Eric Teo for his warm hospitality. We'd also like to thank all members who attended, and Flitto CEO Simon Lee who provided simultaneous translation service.

Please click the link below for more pictures

https://photos.app.goo.gl/Zz7ss5wG8fma7MS3A

‘Planetary Politics and Korea’,

Won-soo Kim, Chair of the international advisory board of the Taejae Academy

01.Doomsday Clock and three existential threats

In 1947, nuclear scientists created the Doomsday Clock, representing the point at which humanity could vanish due to nuclear war. It started at seven minutes to midnight, but in 1953, escalating nuclear tests by the US and Soviet Union, along with Joseph Raymond McCarthy's proposal of nuclear attacks on China, caused immense fear of nuclear war, moving the clock to two minutes. However, successful US-Soviet nuclear arms limitation negotiations and the end of the Cold War led to gradual retreat of the clock, reaching 90 seconds last year due to facing three existential threats. Firstly, it's the 'Nuclear Winter'. It's a threat that started when Russia declared nuclear threats to Ukraine. Secondly, it's the 'Climate Crisis'. Thirdly, it's the 'Emerging Technology' that no one can predict how quickly and to what extent it will develop.

01-1. Nuclear winter

We have only two options: either to open the world to global nuclear zero or to regress. Without fostering global cooperation, effectively reducing the number of nuclear weapons is practically impossible. The pathway towards global nuclear zero, or nuclear disarmament, lies in achieving cooperation among the Permanent Five (P5) of the United Nations Security Council and the Nuclear-Weapon States (N5) recognized by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Of course, there are also four nuclear-armed states, such as Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea, not recognized under the NPT. The role of the G2 (Group of Two), namely the United States and China, is crucial for the cooperation of these states. Of course, this is a very challenging path.

01-2. Climate crisis

Over the past 10,000 years, carbon dioxide levels remained stable, and there was minimal temperature rise. However, since the onset of industrialization, carbon dioxide concentrations have sharply increased over the past 100 years, leading to significant temperature rises. This is clearly anthropogenic. In January, carbon dioxide concentration exceeded 421PPM. Since July, the average temperature has been rising by 1.5 degrees Celsius each month, consistently breaking records. Soon, carbon dioxide levels will reach 450PPM, and temperatures will rise by 2 degrees Celsius. The problem is the release of toxic substances like methane from Siberia due to this, which will further accelerate temperature rise.

The first impact of temperature rise is on ocean currents. The left side of Europe and North America became habitable areas for humanity due to warm ocean currents. However, these currents are affected as ice melts in the Arctic region, causing their temperatures to decrease. The second impact of temperature rise is on sea level rise. Since the Antarctic icebergs are situated on land, global sea levels rise when they melt. If temperatures exceed 2 degrees Celsius and sea levels rise, many areas worldwide will be inundated. Particularly vulnerable are cities like Shanghai, New York, Korea, and Japan. In the case of Korea, its cities, situated in low-lying areas or near rivers and oceans, will be highly vulnerable. The same applies to Southeast Asia and Pacific islands. These are two existential threats caused by temperature rise.

01-3. Emerging Technology

Artificial intelligence is advancing at a rapid pace, and there is uncertainty about whether humanity can control it. The problem lies in the fact that AI can be used as biochemical weapons. AI drones have already been used in the Ukraine war to kill humans, and in one instance, the US Air Force issued an order for AI to abort a mission but ended up perceiving the operator as an obstacle to mission accomplishment and killed them. Combat using AI will take on four different forms. Firstly, there is 'Centaur Warfighting,' also known as 'Central Warfighting,' where centaurs are hybrids controlled by humans. Secondly, there is 'Mosaic Warfare,' where humans make strategic combat decisions. Thirdly, there is 'Minotaur Warfare,' which is the opposite of 'Centaur Warfighting,' where the body is human but the brain is machine. All three of these forms of warfare are controllable by humans. However, the problematic form of warfare is the fourth one, 'AI-General Warfare' or 'Singleton,' where AI, not humans, makes all strategic and tactical combat decisions. The occurrence of this fourth scenario is unpredictable.

02. Global Governance Crisis

In addition to the three existential threats mentioned above, there is a larger crisis unfolding: the collapse of global governance, including the paralysis of the United Nations Security Council. Furthermore, with the weakening of US leadership and China's reluctance to step up, a kind of power vacuum is emerging. As a result, conflicts such as the Ukraine war in Eastern Europe and the Armenia-Azerbaijan war in the Middle East are erupting. Essentially, a Fort line is gradually forming between the Global East and the Global West, raising concerns about the outbreak of a Third World War. The Ukraine war is a scenario that could very well happen to us. Therefore, I believe that the next US presidential election is crucial. Depending on whether 'Trump 2.0' or 'Biden 2.0' emerges as the president, very different situations will unfold. I call this planetary politics. The international order is based on a state-centered system, and nobody knows what paradigm shift will occur.

I just returned from a conference organized by a Princeton University professor yesterday. The conference was attended by scholars from prestigious universities such as Harvard, Yale, Johns Hopkins, as well as scholars from various countries including Singapore, Japan, and Korea. The purpose of the conference was to discuss the direction of the new world order and the role of the Global South. The three key words discussed at the conference were as follows: firstly, global fragmentation; secondly, skepticism about the current international order; thirdly, the uncertainty that nobody can present a new solution or vision. However, one thing is certain: the new paradigm of planetary politics must be achieved through cooperation with the Global South.

03. Korea’s Role

There are three main roles that Korea can play on a global scale. Firstly, it can serve as a bridge between the Global West and the Global South. Secondly Korea can help the United States and China find common ground on issues of mutual concern. Thirdly, Korea can help fill the growing deficit in the provision of global public goods. Looking back at history, Korea has often been a battleground for foreign powers, facing wars with Japan, Qing Dynasty, and Russia on the Korean Peninsula, and the Korean War itself was fought on Korean soil. Therefore, if we do not possess sufficient conflict management capabilities and resilience, we may find ourselves in even worse situations. Diplomatic efforts are crucial for this, but Korea cannot achieve this alone; we need support. I hope that everyone attending this conference can become strong partners for Korea. We need to build a determined coalition not only for Korea but for the entire world, as it will require considerable effort, creativity, and resilience to bring about a paradigm shift and establish a new type of international order.

Q&A

Q1. I would like to inquire about the vacuum of power and leadership that you mentioned earlier. In fact, China is not filling the gap left by the United States. I am curious whether this is due to a lack of willingness or a lack of capability on the part of China. It is true that even if China has the willingness to provide global public goods or to help resolve conflicts, it may not have the same level of capability as the United States. What are your thoughts on this?

A1. First, China's worldview is very different. While China has the capability to fill the power vacuum, it looks at the world through a self-centric lens. Initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative have caused significant waves, as recipient countries view Chinese support more as loans than aid, meaning they must repay them later. Essentially, China does not provide specific public goods. With the decreasing contributions from the Global West, a vacuum is emerging. Who will fill this gap? Let's look at those who contribute to peace and provide humanitarian support in conflict situations. For example, the UN provides food to over 120 million people and protects more than 80 million refugees every day, with these numbers continually rising. Conflicts like the ongoing Syrian civil war exacerbate the situation. Someone needs to step in to address these issues. We all need to recognize the urgency of this situation to find solutions.

Q2. A2. You mentioned that Korea can bridge between the Global West and the Global South. Currently, experts evaluate that Korea doesn't have much involvement with the Global South. Without such involvement, how can Korea perform the role of a bridge?

A2. I believe Korea's involvement with the Global South is robust. Korea originated from the Global South and transitioned to become the world's 10th largest economy, thereby moving towards the Global West. Additionally, it ranks 10th in contributions to the UN budget. Korea is among the few nations capable of increasing its Official Development Assistance (ODA) budget. For instance, despite various ongoing challenges, the current government has decided to increase the ODA budget by 40%. While many Western governments struggle to maintain their current levels of ODA, Korea remains committed to increasing its budget. Furthermore, Korea has already hosted the Democracy Summit this year and will co-host another summit with the UK and Australia in May. Additionally, a military-focused AI summit is scheduled for September. Korea can be considered dedicated to finding solutions.

Q3. I have a question about the Indo-Pacific strategy. The Indo-Pacific strategy only covers some parts of the world. In this situation, can Korea truly play a bridging role between the Global South?

A3. I think the Indo-Pacific strategy is not universally accepted by many countries, especially in Latin America, China, and some countries in Asia. The Indo-Pacific strategy was an effort to extend the horizon of our strategy going beyond the Western Pacific towards the Indian Ocean. Therefore, the Indo-Pacific strategy is an attempt to broaden the scope of interest to include security and economy in South Asia as well. Latin America is also a very important partner for us. However, I believe that another strategy, such as plurilateralism, is needed for Korea to pursue. It involves forming as many plurilateral partnerships as possible. This is because, in order for Korea to faithfully perform its bridging role, it needs to build strong partnerships with as many countries worldwide as possible. Therefore, I would like to see Korea actively promoting plurilateral cooperation with Latin America.

Q4. The Biden administration is providing nuclear deterrence to South Korea. However, if Trump returns, such policies will undoubtedly be affected. In fact, there have been surveys showing that 65%-70% of Koreans support nuclear possession. Additionally, it's already evident that North Korea is a nuclear state. Considering these circumstances, what is the likelihood that countries like South Korea or Japan may eventually decide to become nuclear states?

A4. This is indeed a disastrous scenario that we all fear. Thanks to the efforts of the Biden administration, support for South Korea possessing nuclear weapons has decreased. However, if Trump returns, the number of Koreans supporting nuclear possession will likely spike. Japan and Taiwan may also consider possessing nuclear weapons. This would essentially lead to the collapse of the NPT and pose a significant threat to nuclear security and world peace. It's a problem that needs to be carefully managed.

Q5. The Tenth NPT Review Conference concluded without the adoption of a final document. What substantive impact can the participation of countries supporting initiatives such as the Stockholm Initiative have? Additionally, there are concerns that the Ukraine war may lead to some countries not abandoning their nuclear weapon development efforts. However, efforts for disarmament are ongoing in various parts of the world, such as the proposal for a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. What is the value of these initiatives, and how can these attempts be further activated?

A5. We have experienced consecutive failures in the NPT reviews in 2015 and 2020. If we face another failure in the upcoming review in 2026, it will be devastating. The absence of effective nuclear weapon restraint treaties is a major concern. This is a task that requires the efforts of everyone. The UK is one of the newly joined countries in the N5. The N5 must pledge not to increase global nuclear stockpiles. While 186 countries around the world have promised not to possess nuclear weapons, the N5 have agreed to reduce their nuclear arsenal. Nuclear umbrella states must plan joint actions. Additionally, we need to persuade China not to increase its nuclear weapons holdings. Such nuclear disarmament agendas should be prioritized, and we must focus intensively on them over the next two years.

Q6. You mentioned that AI could be used in the development of biological weapons. What are your thoughts on this?

A6. Biological weapons have been a serious concern even before the rapid advancement of AI. However, now AI programs can provide formulas to produce materials for biochemical weapons instantly, posing a significant risk as the safeguards installed by the creators of these AI programs have been bypassed, making them accessible to anyone. Consequently, the threat of biochemical warfare has escalated. While there are organizations like the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) for chemical weapons, there is no equivalent control agency for biological weapons. This presents an area where the United States and China could collaborate, as they share the common interest of preventing these weapons from falling into the wrong hands. Despite the increasing danger, there is an ironic opportunity for the United States and China to work together towards a solution.

Q7. What is North Korea's position regarding Russia and China?

A7. I believe North Korea is getting closer to Russia for various reasons, as they both have a common goal of avoiding sanctions. However, we need to take a closer look at the relationship with China. When North Korea commemorated the anniversary of the North’s Korean People's Army, Russia sent its defense minister, while China sent a civilian delegation. This indicates that while there is much talk about strengthening military ties between Russia, North Korea, and China, China takes a somewhat cautious stance on these ties. Maintaining a peaceful environment is paramount for China. China does not want North Korea to possess nuclear weapons because it could lead to South Korea, Japan, and even Taiwan acquiring nuclear weapons, which is not in China's interests. Therefore, China takes a different position on military and security issues related to North Korea compared to Russia. Thus, we can say that Russia is the country closest to North Korea. Our task is to manage the risks arising from these dynamics, and significant involvement from the United States is necessary. The next U.S. president should prioritize the North Korean issue.

Q8. In the recent general election, the People Power Party secured only 108 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly. Consequently, it's anticipated that President Yoon's domestic reform agenda in various sectors such as healthcare, labor, and education would face significant challenges in passing through the legislature. While this question pertains to domestic policy, could such weakness in the opposition affect South Korea's foreign policy? If so, how?

A8. Yes. Considering the recent election results, it appears that the current government will face challenges in implementing domestic policy reforms. For example, if the government aims to increase the ODA budget, it will require approval from the National Assembly. Initiatives requiring budget allocation from the parliament will need to persuade the opposition. Therefore, greater efforts must be made to reach bipartisan agreements.